A Chinese Competitor to Boeing and Airbus

Almost a year ago to the day, the first C919, a Chinese competitor to the A320 and Boeing 737, was introduced. Manufactured by the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, the aircraft has yet to achieve its type certification in the US, and may not with the current version of the C919 or the ARJ-21, COMAC's answer to the regional jet.

 "China's first domestically designed passenger jet will be delivered without U.S. certification, a potential dent to both the aircraft's international credibility and to joint safety efforts by Chinese and U.S. regulators. The Comac ARJ-21 regional jet, which can seat up to 90 passengers, received the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) type certification last December and will be delivered to launch customer Chengdu Airlines shortly, two people familiar with the plane's program told Reuters.

The plane will fly without U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification despite a five-year effort to have the FAA endorse CAAC's certification procedures, the people said." (Reuters, 2015)

Some people close to COMAC believe that the FAA may be delaying or witholding certification due to political or economic reasons. However, the FAA has stated that,

 "The ARJ-21 was never intended to be certificated by the FAA under the shadow evaluation process, and Comac planned a derivative model of the plane to comply with FAA standards." (Reuters, 2015) 

Personally, I don't believe that the C919 or the ARJ-21 will receive FAA certification unless a derivative of the domestic model is produced that complies with FAA certification standards. Whether or not this is something that is simply policy driven, or it is a political or economic decision, I'm not sure. More current information shows that all is not well with the C919.

 "But Comac today is missing much of its earlier swagger and curiosity from competitors has given way to the realities of delays. Some of the plane’s suppliers say its first flight is now scheduled at least two years late, for the end of 2016. Comac has also delayed the delivery date to airlines to 2018 but Aviation Week reports the timeframe is closer to 2019 or 2020." (Fortune, 2016)

Basically the argument is that by the time the C919 makes it to the market, it's not going to be anywhere near competitive with the 737 and A320 4 years from now.  So my question is, why certify an aircraft that US airlines won't be interested in purchasing? If the desire and demand is there from the US airlines, then maybe the FAA will get it done, if not, why bother?

For the sake of argument, should the C919 receive FAA certification, I don't think that US carriers would face any real challenges like they would if foreign airlines were allowed to operate domestic routes, case in point, Norwegian Airlines. However, I don't really think that domestic US airlines would bite off on the C919.  Several reasons come to mind. the cost of training mechanics, setting up logistics as far as parts, retraining current crews, and scrapping current long standing deals with Boeing and Airbus. As far as public perception, I doubt most of the flying public would even know the difference unless they happened to get bored and read the emergency pamphlet in the seat back pocket. 

Comac is a state owned aerospace manufacturer, most of the airlines are state owned as well, so they are placed in somewhat of a precarious situation. 

"Comac’s only customers for now are Chinese airlines, most state-owned, who don’t have much choice in the matter. But a delayed C919 with worse-than-expected fuel efficiency would create a dilemma for China carriers who want to appease the government with purchases but also fly competitive aircraft to earn the highest profit to, again, appease the government." (Fortune, 2016)

Insofar as whether or not Comac's success would give other manufacturers the courage to take a shot at competing, I highly doubt it. The manufacture of transport category aircraft is prohibitively expensive. With facilities, employees, r&d, certification, etc. there really aren't a lot of entities that could even manage to try. Comac is owned by China, so the finances are there.

If anything, I think that this challenge by Comac will just result in Boeing and Airbus making sure that future versions of the 737 and A320, blow the C919 out of the water. 

References:

 Miller, M., & Govindasamy, S. (2015, October 21). Exclusive: China-made regional jet set for delivery, but no U.S. certification. Retrieved October 29, 2016, from http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-aircraft-arj21-exclusive-idUSKCN0SF2XN20151021

Cendrowski, S. (2016, February 15). China’s Answer To Boeing Loses Shine. Retrieved October 29, 2016, from http://fortune.com/2016/02/16/china-comac-c919-delay-delivery/